Marc Marquez’s COTA MotoGP grid gamble: Wrong reasons, right decision? wrong reasons

Marc Marquez miscalculated the scale of his COTA MotoGP penalty but was a last-ജminute bike swap still the best stra൩tegy?

Marc Marquez, 2025 Americas MotoGP grid
Marc Marquez, 2025 Americas MotoGP grid

168澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果历史:Marc Marquez may have significantly misjudged the penalty for his dramatic last-minute bike swap at Sunday's COTA MotoGP, but it was still probably the smartest decision in terms of his race strategy🌱.

With rain falling before the sighting lap, most riders - including Marquez - went to the grid on wet tyres. However, as the start approached, it became🌃 increasingly clea🐼r that slicks were the better choice.

Only three riders - Brad Binder (16th), Enea Bastia𓄧nini (17th), and Ai Ogura (18th) - had already committe🐷d to slicks.

Marquez then ran off the grid to switch to his dry bike just before the warm-up lap, triggerin🎶g others to follow.

But 168澳洲幸运5官🦩方开奖结果历史:as newl🦩y released footage revealed, the ಞeight-time world champion did so believing he would simply start from the back of the grid.

Instead, Marquez would have started from his original pole position but then had to serve a ride-througꦛh penalty in the race. A much harsher punishment.

Despite that misunderstanding, was leaving the♊ grid for slicks still thღe best move?

Here are some possible scenarios for those on ꦍthe grid with ⛄wet tyres...

Scenario 1: Leave the grid before warm-up lap and swap to dry bike

  •   Race start: Normal grid position
  •   Penalty: Ride-through during the race (approx. 30 seconds lost)

This is exactly what Ma🎐rquez and 🎉others attempted before the start was delayed, on safety grounds, due to the resulting chaos.

Since he made the switch before th✨e warm-up lap, Marquez would have escaped a pit lane start. In fact, he was already waiting at the end of pit lane for the warm-up lap to begin when the race was officially delayed.

Instead of starting from the back of the grid as he believed, Marquez would have lined up in his original pole position - but then had to serve a costly ride through penalty during the racꦐe.

That’s a much bigger penalty than he expected, especially since, with others follo♌wing him in changing bikes, Marquez would not have been ‘last’ on the grid.

Nonetheless, providing his slick bike would be qu♈icker than the wet bike from lap one, it might still have been the least damaging option for Marquez (and others with wet tyres on the grid) in terms of time lost.

Scenario 2: Leave grid and swap to dry bike after the warm-up lap.

  • Race start: End of pit lane.
  • Penalty: Ride-through during the race (approx. 30 seconds lost)

If Marquez had stayed on the grid with wet tyres for the warm-up lap and then pitted to change bikes, he would have started the race from the end of pit lane and had a ride-through penalty to serve in the race.

This ♛scenario would have been worse than Scenario 1 because it would have added e♕xtra time lost at the start, while waiting for the pack to pass before being released from the end of pit lane.

Scenario 3: Start on wets, then change to dry bike during the race (flag to flag).

  • Race start: Normal grid position.
  • Penalty: No ‘penalty’ but bike swap equivalent to a ride-through plus several seconds.

To avoid a penalty, Marquez would have 𝕴needed to stick with his wet bike for the race start and then pit for the dry bike (fla🍎g to flag).

However, a bike sw💖ap in the pits costs slightly more time than a ride-through penalty, because the rider has to jump o💛ff one bike and onto another.

This strategy would only have been worthwhile if wet tyres had been faster than slicks for the opening laps - allowing Marquez to build a lead before pitting 🍰- something that s꧋eems unlikely in Sunday’s fast-drying conditions.

Marc Marquez leads, 2025 Americas MotoGP at COTA
Marc Marquez leads, 2025 Americas MotoGP at COTA

Where might Marquez have finished?

If the original race start had gone ahead and Marquez had taken his place on pol🃏e before serving a 🍸ride-through penalty, where might he have finished?

Since Marquez crashed out of the le🧸ad of the ‘restart’, (held slightly later when the track was even dryer and over 19 instead of the original 20 lapsও) we don’t know what Marquez’s pace would have been over a race distance on slicks.

But we can look at the performance of two riders on the original grid with slicksও and c𓂃ompare them to race winner Francesco Bagnaia.

  • Bastianini (started 17th, finished 7th) +12.815s behind Bagnaia
  • Ogura (started 18th, finished 9th) +16.344s behind Bagnaia
  • Binder (started 16th, retired from 5th with a technical issue)

If we assume the ride-through ♐would have cost Marquez 30-seconds, it looks extremely difficult for him to then catch Binder, Bastianini or Ogura for pure pace.

However, with the rest o𒊎f the field either starting on wets (and soon struggling) or also facing a ride-through penalty, Marquez could have been ‘bღest of the rest’ - fighting for at least fourth place. 

In other words, his perfect 2025 wi🌸n streak was effectively over when he arrived on the grid with his wet bike... until the start was delay💙ed.

Who Were the Real Losers?

If the race had started as planned, Marquez's dramatiꦰc grid exit would probably still have been the best damage limitation option available.

However, the three riders who ꦕoriginally committed to slicks - Binder, B🌱astianini, and Ogura - were the biggest losers.

By delaying the sta📖rt, all riders were allowed to change bikes and their advantage erased, meaning they suffered the most from Sunday’s chaotic scenes.

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